Monthly Market Report Summary
USDA World Supply/Demand as at 08.02.2008
| Beginning Stocks |
Production | Imports | Domestic Use |
Exports | Ending | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | ||||||
| AT 08.02.08 | 57.35 | 117.69 | 44.37 | 116.31 | 44.53 | 60.18 |
| AT 14.01.08 | 57.35 | 117.69 | 44.37 | 116.31 | 44.53 | 60.18 |
| AT 12.12.07 | 57.35 | 117.69 | 44.37 | 116.11 | 44.53 | 60.38 |
| 2006/07 | ||||||
| AT 08.02.08 | 60.18 | 122.07 | 37.28 | 123.58 | 37.35 | 60.76 |
| AT 14.01.08 | 60.18 | 122.07 | 37.28 | 123.58 | 37.4 | 60.71 |
| AT 12.12.07 | 60.38 | 122.07 | 37.28 | 123.28 | 37.55 | 60.96 |
| 2007/08 | ||||||
| AT 08.02.08 | 60.71 | 119.21 | 41.32 | 126.32 | 40.05 | 54.33 |
| AT 14.01.08 | 60.76 | 118.25 | 41.16 | 128.02 | 40.88 | 54.75 |
| AT 12.12.07 | 60.96 | 118.76 | 41.70 | 128.27 | 41.38 | 55.29 |
Highlights
February’s forecast of USDA World Cotton Supply and Demand figures proved mostly bearish with a 0.96mb increase to world production, significantly lower consumption and a 2.58mb increase to global ending stocks. Although India reduced its production figures by 500,000 bales, Brasil, China and Pakistan all recorded increased projections (0.2mb, 1mb, 0.4mb respectively) contributing overall to the enlarged global production. Fluctuating Chinese figures appeared to again dominate the focus of the USDA release, with a 0.5mb decrease to imports and a 1mb reduction in domestic consumption. Despite China’s recent trend of reduced consumption, according to a USDA statement, China’s consumption is still forecast to increase by 8% from 2006/07 figures. Combined with reductions in India (-0.5mb) and Turkey (-0.1mb), world consumption reduced by 1.7mb from last month. With lower demand, exports have reduced in Brasil (0.1mb), India (0.1mb), Australia (0.1mb) and the US (0.3mb), lowering global exports by 0.83mb down to 40.05mb. These changes result in a significant increase of 2.58mb, raising global ending stocks to 57.33mb, of which China accounts for over half.
Summary - USDA US Supply/Demand as at 08.02.2008
| 2006/07 | 2007/08 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.01.08 | 12.12.08 | 14.01.08 | 08.02.08 | |
| BEGINNING STOCK | 6.05 | 6.05 | 9.48 | 9.48 |
| PRODUCTION | 21.59 | 21.59 | 18.89 | 19.03 |
| IMPORTS | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| TOTAL SUPPLY | 27.66 | 27.66 | 28.53 | 28.53 |
| DOMESTIC MILL USE | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| EXPORTS | 13.01 | 13.01 | 16.00 | 15.70 |
| TOTAL USE | 18.18 | 18.18 | 21.60 | 21.80 |
| ENDING STOCK | 9.48 | 9.48 | 7.90 | 7.90 |
Highlights
This month’s USDA domestic cotton projections remain relatively neutral save for lower exports and higher ending stocks. While production and domestic mill use remain unchanged, US exports reduced by 300,000 bales, perhaps a reflection of the poor sales performance over the past few months. This change resulted in ending stocks increasing from 7.9mb to 8.2mb accordingly